A Forecast That Just Did a Backflip
The World Trade Organization raised its 2026 forecast for merchandise trade growth to 3.9% from 1.9% in March. It also lifted 2027 to 4.1% from 2.6% (Le Poidevin, 2026). For comparison, 2025 growth came in at 4.2%.
WTO economists said trade proved more resilient than anticipated despite disruptions (Le Poidevin, 2026). Those disruptions were not small. The report cites higher fuel and fertilizer costs tied to trouble around the Strait of Hormuz and the Russian war in Ukraine.
The Chips Are Carrying the Whole Conga Line
Here is the plot twist. Trade in semiconductors and AI data centre products rose 67% year on year, and AI enabling goods made up 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026 (Le Poidevin, 2026).
Notice the gap between two numbers. Trade volume grew 3.5% year on year in the first half, but trade in dollar value grew 15% (Le Poidevin, 2026). Trade is booming, but a lot of that boom is wearing a very expensive microchip.
The regional picture shows how uneven the party is. Asia is forecast to see imports rise 9.5% and exports rise 9.9% in 2026. Africa should see imports up 8.9% and exports up 5.6%, while North America sees imports up 1.4% and exports up 5.7% (Le Poidevin, 2026).
| Asia | 9.9% |
| North America | 5.7% |
| Africa | 5.6% |
Not Everyone Got an Invitation
The Middle East is the party's unlucky neighbor. Imports there are forecast to fall 15.4% and exports to fall 17.2%, with regional output dropping 4% (Le Poidevin, 2026).
Services trade is also sitting out the celebration. Growth is forecast at 3.3% in 2026, down from 4.8%, with transport services at 0.9% and travel services at 0.2%, before a rebound to 6.4% in 2027 (Le Poidevin, 2026).
Old trade habits are shifting too. US imports from China fell 29% in 2025, and China now supplies 9.3% of US imports, down from over 20% before 2018 (Le Poidevin, 2026). The report lists a slowdown in AI investment among the risks, which matters when one product family is carrying so much of the load.
Trade is booming, but a lot of that boom is wearing a very expensive microchip.
What You Can Actually Do About It
Headlines about booming trade hide who is actually benefiting. Check how much of your job, business or portfolio leans on one fashionable sector or one shipping route. If you import or sell goods, line up a second supplier before you need one. If you invest, ask whether a jump in value reflects real volume or just pricier products. Then ask yourself, if the AI hardware boom cooled tomorrow, how exposed would your money or job be?
References
Le Poidevin, O. (2026, October 8). WTO upgrades goods trade forecast as AI boom offsets Middle East disruption. Reuters. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-08/wto-upgrades-goods-trade-forecast-ai-boom-offsets-middle-east
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